Why Rafa will sell Alonso

11 May 2009

I was interacting with some of our members on our VIP website today when someone asked about Xabi Alonso and Carlos Tevez. People want to know if the Alonso exit talk is true and if we really are in for Carlos Tevez. Nobody knows what will happen in the summer. Not me, not Rafa, not even the players concerned. But we can examine the thoughts and possibilities until we see something played out. Alonso and Benitez do not have the best relationship in the world. They have fallen out before but they're fine with each other in the sense that they each know their role and so on. Every summer there is talk of a possible exit for Alonso. This is because those close to him would prefer to live in Spain, they miss "home". Benitez is in rush to sell Alonso but he knows he has a high valuation *if* he can convince someone to spend silly money. Perez has already declared that if (when!) he is elected at Real Madrid that he will sign Alonso because he has all the standards for a Real Madrid player. Rafa knows this and my opinion is that the interest from Man City has been instigated by Rafa to put pressure on Real to pay good, good money. Man City will read the reports and think "that's the agent inviting us, there could be an opening for Alonso" so their interest will no doubt be genuine now but my opinion is that the Man City stuff is coming from Rafa. Rafa will think he can get £20m for Alonso, that would double his spend in the summer and he can't ignore that, especially when he knows that the player will at some point say he wants to leave. If Alonso drops that statement, buying clubs know the player is available so they won't bid high. Gareth Barry is in Rafa's mind a good replacement and he's English. He's also versatile. £8m on him leaves £12m change if Rafa receives £20m for Alonso. That means one more good player. You have to remember that the same thing happens every year with Alonso and that while he could go, he could also stay and we move on. However there is no way that Rafa will ignore big offers for him at this stage. Rafa won't sell at a knocked down price. I'd be gutted to see Alonso go but I can also see the manager's thinking here. With regards Tevez. There has been contact between a couple of LFC players and Tevez (as we've touched on before). He would like to move to Liverpool but much depends on the fee. Is he really worth £30m+? That's the question that Rafa has to try and answer. Think of the maths here though. Sell Alonso = £20m (hopefully) + £20m annual board pledge = £40million i.e. Tevez at £32m and Barry at £8m. That would work but it's a big spend on one player. But if Rafa sells more players, he would still have room to work in the market. I personally believe that we can sign Tevez but it all depends on how much he wants to come to us. If he insists he wants to move to Liverpool then the price will have to come down. (One overseas club has offered £40m if you believe his agents/owners). Putting those two to one side, I still believe that Rafa will go for Silva :)